Financial markets have been rumbled by a surge in real yields together with a fall in inflation expectations. This has posed a significant challenge to equities.
Did yields rise because of expectations of more economic growth, and higher corporate profits, or are markets anticipating some monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve to forestall inflation? We think growth rather than inflation-busting is behind the higher yields, which should be positive for equities. We expect the drop in inflation expectations to not last given the prospect of more stimulus spending and of a post-COVID surge in demand meeting limited capacity.
The other main market driver is vaccination. In the US and UK, the rollouts are making steady progress, but the eurozone is lagging behind.
In terms of our asset allocation views, this environment in combination with the market dynamics suggests medium-term upside for risky assets. Admittedly, bullish technical signals are starting to appear in some equity markets, but our indicators are still advocating caution, with sideways moves expected during early 2021.
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Any views expressed here are those of the author as of the date of publication, are based on available information, and are subject to change without notice. Individual portfolio management teams may hold different views and may take different investment decisions for different clients. This document does not constitute investment advice.
The value of investments and the income they generate may go down as well as up and it is possible that investors will not recover their initial outlay. Past performance is no guarantee for future returns.
Investing in emerging markets, or specialised or restricted sectors is likely to be subject to a higher-than-average volatility due to a high degree of concentration, greater uncertainty because less information is available, there is less liquidity or due to greater sensitivity to changes in market conditions (social, political and economic conditions).
Some emerging markets offer less security than the majority of international developed markets. For this reason, services for portfolio transactions, liquidation and conservation on behalf of funds invested in emerging markets may carry greater risk.